After eight days, Iranians head to the polls to choose a new president for the country, amid expectations that Ebrahim Raisi, a conservative and close to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, will win.

Raisi had previously competed against Hassan Rouhani in 2017, but he failed to deprive the latter of a second term in office, with 38.28 percent of the vote, compared to 57.14 percent for the moderate president supported by the reformists.

In addition to the strength of the man (60 years old), and the willingness of the political environment in Iran to receive a conservative president, after the parties affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards swept the parliament in the 2020 legislative elections; The list of contenders also does not include names that can compete with “Main”.

Raisi has held the judiciary since 2019, a position directly appointed by Khamenei, in the culmination of a busy career in the judiciary, during which he also held the position of the country’s attorney general, between 2014 and 2016.

Raisi is also a member of the Assembly of Experts, which is the main body in the Iranian regime entrusted by the constitution with the task of appointing and removing the leader of the Islamic revolution in Iran. This assembly currently consists of 88 members who are elected by direct popular vote for one eight-year term.

And the matter does not stop there, as Raisi is referred to as one of the strong candidates to succeed Khamenei in the position of supreme leader, which was confirmed by a report by the American magazine “The New Yorker” last year.

However, indications that participation in the upcoming elections has declined, to the lowest levels in the country’s history, prompted the Iranian regime to talk about the possibility of expanding the circle of competition to encourage more Iranians to go to the polls, which also raises questions about the possibility of surprises at the last minute. .

In an interview with “Arabi 21”, the expert on Iranian affairs, Adnan Zamani, confirmed that there is a consensus among observers on Raisi’s victory in the elections “if things continue as they are.”

“No surprises”

Zamani said, “Opinion polls indicate that he is ahead of his rivals in the elections, and he does not expect a surprise in the Iranian political scene in the coming days.”

On the reasons for this, Zamani explained: “There are several reasons why Ibrahim Raisi is the most likely candidate to win the presidential elections, the most important of which is the reluctance of a large percentage of the reformist movement’s supporters from participating in the presidential elections after the failure of the Rouhani government to fulfill its electoral promises.”

He added that the second reason, in terms of importance, “is related to the Guardian Council’s dismissal of prominent figures such as Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri, Ali Larijani, the former parliament speaker and advisor to the Supreme Leader, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the former president. Ibrahim Raisi.

Zamani expressed his belief that Raisi possesses qualifications that enable him to lead the country better, the most important of which is his good relations, according to the Iranian expert, with many sovereign institutions, “which makes his presence in the presidency of the Republic a facilitating factor in the implementation of many projects.”

He added: “The state in general will rest for the next four years in a minimum of factional and political conflict between the reformist and fundamentalist currents, and something like harmony and harmony will occur between the three institutions. The share of the fundamentalists.

Zamani concluded by saying: “Therefore, if the president of the republic becomes a fundamentalist, that will be a factor in the success of joint work between state institutions, and they will not be preoccupied with controversial issues.”

Raisi raised again this year the slogan of confronting “poverty and corruption”, focusing on limiting the breach of job duties in the “executive body” of the state.

He also expressed his desire to build “four million homes within four years” and “form a government of the people for a strong Iran.”