Amman – Raed Sbeih

The strategic expert and professor of international conflicts at the University of Jordan, Dr. Hassan Momani, confirmed in his statements to “compass“The Arab openness to the Syrian regime and the momentum it witnessed in recent days were contributed by many factors, on top of which was the catastrophe of the earthquake that struck Turkey and Syria, which resulted in a humanitarian situation that had to be dealt with urgently in the humanitarian context, which constituted a great opportunity that came in the interest of the Syrian regime.

Al-Momani said that the Arab diplomatic channels were not completely closed, and relations were not severed after the events of the Arab Spring, despite the suspension of Syria’s seat in the Arab League. However, it witnessed discrepancies between one country and another, according to the geopolitical reality of each country.

Jordan and political realism

He pointed out that Jordan, which is the closest to Syria, was forced to deal with a very complex geopolitical reality in this issue, which remained a matter of Arab contention in dealing with it, and was forced to open channels with the Syrian regime in its security and diplomatic context, even after declaring the Syrian ambassador persona non grata after he crossed the border. Diplomacy.

He noted that the most active party in the Syrian issue was Russia, and Jordan clashed with it in this Arab context after Syria posed a political, security and humanitarian dilemma represented by the huge number of refugees.

Al-Momani explained that there are urgent issues that opened horizons for de facto engagement with the Syrian issue, foremost of which is the issue of the need to provide Lebanon with energy, security issues in southern Syria and the growing danger, especially from sectarian groups, especially after Russia became preoccupied with the war with Ukraine.

He continued by saying: Add to this the issue of smuggling, which in a certain context, Jordan does not have a problem in dealing with the institutions of the Syrian state, in particular the Syrian army, and the need for there to be control over the borders.

He pointed out that the UAE has restored relations with Syria, as well as Bahrain, Algeria and Iraq, which did not cut off their relations with the Syrian regime.

The catastrophe opened an opportunity for the Syrian regime, and the priority is humanitarian

Al-Momani said: The earthquake disaster opened a bounty for the Syrian regime, especially since the disasters open up opportunities and horizons for international relations, and the severity of the disasters creates a rational reality and puts pressure on all parties that the priority is humanitarian, and therefore it is necessary to neutralize the very big political issues, and to deal with the issue of relief and rescue, and others.

And he continued by saying: “It may be harmful and beneficial, as it is a disaster, but it has benefited the Syrian regime, and we have seen communication, and Jordan was not alone. Most of the Arab countries have opened up in this aspect, even Saudi Arabia, which we used to feel some reservations about this matter, and we began to witness a somewhat different Saudi position.” .

An opportunity to end the zero-sum game in Syria

Al-Momani said: This disaster, in my personal estimation, was paid for by the Syrian people and the Syrian state, and therefore communication with the Syrian regime is not without cost, and we know that Jordan has been working for a year on the peace initiative, related to the Arab depth and its influence, especially to help Syria and to give strong messages to the regime that it cannot Returning to the Arab embrace without any cost to it. Syria must be reproduced, the least of which is acceptable to most parties, and the Syrian regime cannot present itself in the way it was before 2011.

He stressed that “the clash with Syria and the Arab initiatives, led by the Jordanian initiative, are related to stages in which all parties concerned with the conflict in Syria create a political process and make concessions.”

He explained that the talk about a parliamentary delegation that visited the Syrian regime is true that it is a development in the relationship, but we read it as political pressure on the Syrian regime regarding the issue of Arab engagement to give up the “zero-sum game.”

Snatching Syria from the mouth of the Iranian wolf

Regarding the transformations in the region and the complexities of the geopolitical reality, Momani pointed out that it is not only the Arabs who have re-engaged with Syria, as Turkey is also an important player in the region and in Syria in particular, and it made a kind of rotation in relations with the Syrian regime, and it has a strategic interest necessitated by its circumstances, to engage in dialogue. with the Syrian regime.

Momani also pointed out that the Arab openness to Syria is an opportunity to wrest Syria from the mouth of the Iranian wolf, and Iran poses a dilemma in the Syrian issue, but today it is suffering from an internal crisis and a disturbing situation, and the humanitarian catastrophe is an additional pressure on it that will increase the cost of the Syrian arena on it.

He stressed that the Arab openness to Syria must be exploited to persuade the Syrian regime and other parties to produce a Syria that is to some extent far from the state of polarization or to reproduce the Iraqi experience with the need for a political process that produces a stable Syria.

Pointing fingers at those who are interlocutors with the Syrian regime

Undoubtedly, the parties that refuse to sit down with the Syrian regime view the matter as a problem of justice in communicating with a regime that spills the blood of the Syrian people, and this certainly constituted an obstacle in reaching political solutions, and both the opposition parties and the regime are playing in this aspect (a zero-sum game).

Al-Momani continued by saying: Add to that the parties that object to openness with the Syrian regime, including the West, but at the same time they are clashing with Syria to create influence and end Syria’s isolation, noting that “it is true that it is a controversial issue and everyone can present proofs that Arab engagement is of importance.” place in this context.

He pointed out that “the Syrian regime, its weakness, and its complete surrender to Iran may be the result of the lack of “cards” in its hand to try to create an Arab margin.”

Everyone is forced to make concessions and it is too early to judge

Al-Momani said, “It is too early to judge the issue of Syria returning to what it was before 2011. This is incorrect, as we are talking about the current divided and fragmented Syria, and any political process must be inclusive of all parties.”

He added by saying: There are the Americans, a major player in the northeast with its Kurdish allies, and there are the north and opposition groups outside the control of the Syrian regime, and Turkey has a great influence in it, and there are Jordan and Iraq, and there are Saudi Arabia and Russia, which have risen to the cost after being preoccupied with Ukraine, and they are forced to make concessions in this regard. Context.

He stressed that we are facing a very complex geopolitical reality, and the issue of justice may not be the only dimension in dealing with the Syrian issue, and there must be a flavor of political realism.

He pointed out that experience has shown that the standard solution will not be to adopt justice only in resolving the status quo in Syria; Rather, there must be a political process, adding: But it is clear that there is a dilemma facing the regime, and there in the West and America they refuse to deal with a regime stained with the blood of the Syrians, while the official Arab regime and the Arab parties seek to form a state of pressure in Syria that forces the regime to make concessions and change Zero-sum political game approach.

It is noteworthy that after the recent earthquake in Syria, which left thousands of victims behind, and the increased complexity it created in the human reality, the Arab relationship witnessed a breakthrough with the Bashar al-Assad regime at various levels, with visits by Arab foreign ministers and Arab parliamentary delegations, and contacts from Arab leaders, the most prominent of which was humanitarian aid. Without any promises of the return of the Assad regime to the embrace of the official Arab regime.

(compass)