The violent confrontations in the Afar region between the Ethiopian Federal Army and the militias supporting it on the one hand, and the “Tigray Defense Forces” and the “Oromo Liberation Army” on the other hand, have resurfaced, despite the other and more important fronts of confrontation in this country, especially those that are advancing The fighting is towards the capital, Addis Ababa.

What are the reasons for renewed confrontations in the Afar? And why did the federal army start its counter campaign from there? What is the importance of the Afar front to the parties to the fighting in Ethiopia?

strategic area

The Afar region is the link between Ethiopia, Djibouti and the Eritrean Red Sea region, and despite being mostly arid regions, it acquires strategic importance on the parties to the fighting, the most important of which are:

1. The area of ​​the intersection of the roads linking the capital, Addis Ababa, the center of the Afar region, and the roads leading to Eritrea.

2. The vital railway linking Ethiopia and Djibouti, which carries 97% of Ethiopia’s exports and imports, is located in it, and therefore the turmoil around it puts the entire country at risk.

3. The Afar is also an area through which several attempts were made to penetrate into the Tigray region after the recent renewed confrontations and the Tigray regained control over most of the region. Hence, it allows moving deep into the Amhara territory to cut the rear supply lines of a special “Tigray Liberation Front”.

4. The Tigray aims to win over the Afar region for his fierce fighters, and because his victory brings them closer to the Red Sea.

5. The start of the campaign from the front of the Afar region with the Ethiopian federal forces aims mainly to reduce the speed of the advance towards the capital, and to disperse the efforts of the Tigrayan and Oromo forces.

Why did the Tigray decline in the Afar region?

Because of the importance of the Afar Front to the parties to the conflict, the Tigray Liberation Front returned the ball after its failure in the first attempt to enter the Afar, and from here the federal forces supported by various militias began their last campaign, and achieved a victory that raised the morale of its forces. So what happened there?

1. The nature of the terrain in the largely exposed Afar region facilitates aerial monitoring, and enables warplanes to achieve their goals, which is what actually happened.

2. The lack of sympathy with the Tigrayans in the Afar region, especially after the human losses and the displacement that the Afar people suffer from as a result of the repeated military confrontations.

3. A number of sources report that the forces fighting in the Afar are the elite forces, the Republican Guard, and the intelligence brigades, which have advantages not available to the federal army.

4. The Ethiopian government’s obtaining of significant Emirati military support in recent days has played a role in the progress of the federal army, as the UAE’s drones had a decisive role in the beginning of the war in November 2020.

5. The presence of the main decisive element, according to insiders, namely the Eritrean forces that have been present in the Afar region since the second attack of the Tigrays last July.

6. The presence of the Ethiopian Prime Minister close to the front lines of the fighting raised the morale of the federal forces, and this helped achieve victory.

Some analysts underestimate the importance of the federal army’s recovery of these areas as small cities that do not have weight, but controlling them is very important to deal with the Tigray and Amhara regions, which is what Abi Ahmed plans in the next stage.

Psychological war

In the past days, the parties to the conflict in Ethiopia have expanded the means of confrontation and affected morale by broadcasting data and information and a number of measures:

1. The Tigray Liberation Front broadcast a video showing huge numbers of federal army prisoners, who were captured or surrendered in the confrontations over the past period, which the Ethiopian government denied, and considered it a fabricated act to influence the course of the battles.

2. The official media published a statement in which it reported that 12 of the main leaders of the Tigray Liberation Front had been killed by air strikes through rallies, which the Tigray Front denied by publishing meetings attended by a number of those whose names were mentioned in the statement as being killed in the raids.

3. The government prevented local media from publishing international news, and banned channels that broadcast reports on the conduct of military confrontations so that public opinion would not be affected.

Abi Ahmed on the front lines

The battles are intensifying on the three fronts, the Afar front, the Dabiri Burhan front, and the Amhara region front, with little progress except on the Afar front, from which Prime Minister Abi Ahmed announced the liberation and recovery of a number of areas. He spoke to the media, saying, “What you see behind me is the area that was under the grip of Enemies until yesterday, and we have purged them completely, and the morale of our forces is great. We have recaptured Casaguita and are heading to Estrada Chevra, and we will continue until we complete the liberation of the country.”

He added, “We are facing a challenge: to be Ethiopia or not to be, and we are confident of achieving victory, and our people are on our side, and the enemy is not in a position to challenge us.”

The battle with the West

The Ethiopian accusations against Western countries in general and the United States of America in particular are escalating, and a number of government spokesmen, led by the Prime Minister, said that the US embassy is increasing the tension.

“We are fighting the traitors and their foreign backers,” said Ethisa Demy, a member of the capital (Addis Ababa) Council, and a number of foreign agencies operating in Ethiopia were banned.

Diplomatic efforts failed

In his latest statement, Oba Sanjo, the African envoy to Ethiopia, sums up that “talks cannot bear fruit in an environment of escalating military hostilities.”

It is a statement that expresses a clear despair of reaching a political solution, as each side clings to its position of rejecting dialogue and negotiation, other than searching for the burial of the other.

In this context, the President of Kenya, Uhuru Kenyatta, paid a quick and surprising visit to Addis Ababa before the visit of US Secretary of State Blinken to Kenya. Kenyatta warned from there that failure to reach an agreement “will lead to the collapse of Ethiopia, and will extend to other countries in the region,” and called for the immediate start of talks, but his words did not find their way to any of the two sides in the fighting fronts.

UN warning

In light of the intensification of confrontations and the disruption of access to many areas affected by the war, the World Food Program warned that more than 10 million people are in need of relief, especially in the regions of Tigray and Amhara.

He said that there are hundreds of loaded trucks stuck and unable to reach the affected areas. This is not the case for hundreds of thousands of displaced people who are scattered by battles from one place to another.

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