Every time debt or growth figures are released, public debate is reduced to these indicators as the final arbiter of the health of the economy. However, the numbers, no matter how accurate they are, do not alone reveal the direction of the economic path. Some imbalances do not begin in official reports, but rather develop gradually outside of them, before appearing later in the form of financial pressures or a slowdown in activity at a higher cost than if they were addressed early.

Hence, the imbalance is not linked to a single indicator, but rather accumulates through parallel paths that interact with each other. On this basis, three main dimensions of this accumulation can be identified: long-term financial obligations that are not recorded as direct debt, economic decisions that are delayed, and silent structural risks that expand within the economy. The impact of each dimension may seem limited on its own, but their combined interaction is what weakens the ability to adapt and narrows the scope for movement.

The first dimension relates to invisible long-term obligations. These obligations actually exist but do not appear within the direct debt, such as pension obligations, social security, state guarantees for some institutions, and pledges for vital sectors such as water and energy. Therefore, they do not create immediate pressure on the budget, but they exhaust future options and reduce the flexibility of fiscal policy over time.

In this context, and when looking at the financial picture more comprehensively, it becomes clear that the declared debt, which is currently approaching 47 billion dinars, including debts owed to the Social Security Money Investment Fund, reflects existing obligations only, and does not include long-term burdens that may later turn into direct pressures. Therefore, being satisfied with current indicators may give the impression of relative stability, but it does not reflect the full risks lurking on the horizon.

As for economic decisions, the second dimension is the postponed files. In a number of cases, diagnosis is clear while implementation is delayed. This appears in reforming the labor market, linking wages to productivity, and reorganizing some public institutions. As a result, slow resolution creates a state of uncertainty that affects investment decisions, weakens confidence, and limits job generation.

On the other hand, the third dimension is embodied in the structural risks that gradually creep into the structure of the economy. The most prominent of these are long-term unemployment, underemployment, and the expansion of the informal economy. These phenomena, even if they do not cause a sudden shock, weaken the efficiency of the labor market and reduce the tax base, which is directly reflected in the level of productivity and the economy’s ability to achieve sustainable growth.

In light of the above, addressing these three dimensions in an integrated manner can bring about a real shift in the economic path. The experiences of advanced economies show that transparently including future commitments, accelerating reforms, and addressing labor market imbalances early were a decisive factor in enhancing sustainability and raising long-term growth, as proactive dealing with these paths reduces the cost of correction and prevents the accumulation of deferred pressures.

Based on this, adopting this approach in Jordan would raise productivity, enhance confidence, and reduce the cost of subsequent treatment, which is confirmed by economic literature, the International Monetary Fund’s reports for 2024, and the World Bank’s reports for the same year. Therefore, this path could contribute to raising the annual growth rate by about one to two percentage points in the medium term, moving from the range of 2 to 3 percent to levels approaching 4 percent in a more stable and sustainable manner. Therefore, the essence of the challenge does not lie in the level of debt or the growth rate per se, but in how to manage these paths before they turn into permanent restrictions on the economy’s capacity in the coming years.