Iran is distinguished by managing its regional influence and international relations by creating complex and thoughtful balances that save it from direct confrontations, by building a multi-layered network of influence that creates balance, deterrence, and bargaining, as it realizes that its reliance on traditional military force does not give it the ability to confront the largest global powers represented by the United States and NATO. The Iranian government draws the geometry of balances with high precision to ensure the trifecta of remaining in power, removing danger from its lands, and diversifying the response, so that the architecture of balances is built from the inside out.

It created a balance in governance between the Supreme Leader, the government, the Revolutionary Guards, the reformist movement, and the conservatives. Although the leader has the first and last word, the regime gave the rest political margins to avoid anger and increasing popular pressure after the United States imposed economic sanctions, so that the wave of anger was a reason for American political intervention under the slogan of human rights. Tehran also created a cohesive regional balance represented by the unity of the arenas that became the strategic depth of Iran after expanding its influence within the borders of other countries. It created Hezbollah in Lebanon, factions in Iraq, and the regime. The Syrian, the Houthis in Yemen and some Palestinian factions, and the main goal is for the response to be varied in the event that Iran is exposed to a military attack. These factions create a deterrent ring around the Zionist entity and make their military confrontations outside Iranian territory, in addition to possessing pressure cards against the United States, which is punishing Tehran.

Tehran mastered the art of the international game and international balances, and learned from the policy of Muawiyah bin Abi Sufyan, despite the regime’s hatred for him, of maintaining the cords of communication by not cutting the cord with anyone. We find that it did not completely cut off its communication with the West and did not rely on the East completely. It balanced its relationship with China, Russia, European countries, and the United States, and thus created a seat for itself to negotiate forcefully about its nuclear file without crossing the threshold of comprehensive war. Tehran practiced the “edge without falling” policy, as it moves under the cover of indirect strikes and wars. By proxy, and if it moves, its operations will be limited in order to avoid a direct all-out war.

Thanks to balancing engineering, Tehran has succeeded in achieving many of its goals, namely protecting the regime, avoiding complete isolation, and imposing itself as a regional power. The most important thing for the Iranian leadership is to ensure the survival of influence in neighboring countries, even if the ruling regimes change, in order to ensure the complexity of the United States’ calculations. To further complicate matters, Iran is exploiting the strategic balance around the Strait of Hormuz and the Arabian Gulf, which constitute the vital corridor for the world’s oil. Closing the strait will put economic and political pressure on America and its allies, making it very difficult for military intervention, as Tehran, with its geopolitical location, has the ability to balance between military response and economic pressure, which makes Washington think carefully before taking any action, especially since Tehran has diplomacy as part of the balance to avoid any direct military clash, and these things combined reduce the rate of a large-scale clash between Tehran and Washington.

It has become clear that American politicians assess, with reason, not threats, the impact of the Iranian balance. The United States does not see Iran as a nuclear or military threat to its proxies only, but rather the actual threat can be found in engineering the balances of survival that it has made and geopolitical alliances, so that Washington changes its tactics from purely military to a combination of sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and strengthening regional alliances to create a counterbalance in the region, so that Washington, in its confrontation with Tehran, will practice deterrence based not on a single tool, but on a multi-level mixture that combines military force and economic pressure. And alliances, while keeping the door to diplomacy open in the hope that everyone will be saved.

Last words:

The engineering of Iranian balances affects the American threats and increases the complexity of the American strategy, which pushes Washington to greater balance because direct confrontation is very costly for everyone.