Amman – The global food import bill is expected to rise by about 8% on an annual basis in 2025, driven by the prices of coffee and cocoa, which are two main commodities purchased by rich countries, while the prices of grains and sugar fell, according to a report by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) on Thursday.

Basic food imports are expected to reach $2.22 trillion this year, marking an increase for the second year in a row after a slight decline in 2023.

This rise is mainly due to the rise in prices of high-value commodities, such as coffee, cocoa, tea and spices, whose import prices rose by 34.5%, despite witnessing strong demand, according to what the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations reported in its report on global food markets.

This increase is partly due to the climatic conditions experienced by a large number of major producing countries (Brazil, Indonesia and Vietnam for coffee, and Ivory Coast and Ghana for cocoa).

The value of dairy product imports is also expected to rise by 16.4% in 2025, driven by demand and reduced supply as a result of climate fluctuations, high production costs, and local animal epidemics.

On the other hand, the decline in grain and sugar prices mitigates the impact of the results.

The food import bill for low-income countries is expected to decline “slightly” compared to 2024 (0.2%), and to rise “slightly” in sub-Saharan Africa.

But less developed countries are seeing a sharp increase in their spending on oils and drinks.

Even as coffee and cocoa prices and logistics costs are expected to decline in the future, the Food and Agriculture Organization warned that “climate variability, geopolitical instability, and difficult financing conditions remain the risk of rising import costs, especially in poorer regions.”

Currently, the abundance of grain crops of corn, wheat and rice contributes to supplying the markets, according to the FAO, which also expected a “significant” increase in the demand for wheat, especially for rice.

The rate of consumption of vegetable oils is expected to exceed the rate of production, with soybean production declining due to reduced cultivation in Argentina, India, Ukraine and the United States.

Maximo Torero, chief economist at the Food and Agriculture Organization, stressed that “the recovery in global food production represents a positive turning point for market stability,” noting, “But behind these numbers, there are still risks, such as climate fluctuations or volatile trade relations, which could quickly reshape global supply and demand.”

Regarding fertilizers, the organization indicated that its consumption increased during the 2024/2025 season, after a period of decreased use due to problems in prices and availability.

In September, the reference fertilizer basket price was $489 per ton, down 40% from the record price set in April 2022, but still above 2024 levels.

AFP