Compass – Muhammad Saad

There have been demands for the government to secure Jordan’s needs of basic commodities and to enhance the stock of grain, and the trend has emerged after Russia’s withdrawal from the grain agreement, which supplied the world with 33 million tons of Ukrainian grain during the past year, and India’s decisions to ban the export of wheat and rice.

And last week, Russia announced the suspension of the agreement on grain exports across the Black Sea, objecting to the non-implementation of its conditions and demands within the framework of the agreement, she said.

Surprisingly, India decided to ban the export of wheat to the world because of the decline in its production for this season due to the drought after the heat wave that hit the wheat-growing areas. India is the second largest producer of wheat in the world.

The economist, Mounir Dayyeh, said that the agreement reduced global food prices by about 20%. This agreement also contributed to supplying the World Food Program with about 80% of the grains needed by the program. More than 60% of Ukraine’s grain exports during the agreement period went to developing countries, which provided more than 400 million people in the world with food.

He added, in statements to:compassRussia holds the West responsible for the collapse of the agreement due to its intervention in the war and its supply of qualitative weapons, marches, increased financial support and imposition of more sanctions on it. Russia aspires to achieve new gains through negotiation to resume the export of grain through Ukrainian ports and to exploit the world’s need for Ukrainian grain.

Diyah referred to a decision taken by India a few days ago to ban the export of non-basmati white rice due to weather conditions and floods, which caused a decline in production and an increase in rice prices locally, prompting India to ban the export of white rice. India is the largest exporter of rice in the world and contributes about 40% of global rice exports.

He stressed that the political crises and wars ravaging the world, in addition to climate disturbances and the decline in production in many countries, herald a humanitarian catastrophe in many developing countries.

And he warned of the foregoing that it warns of a rise in food prices again to record numbers if these reasons remain in place during the coming period, and this will affect the ability of many countries of the world to secure the food needs of their people in light of the economic crises, high energy costs and high interest rates in those countries.

He demanded that the government quickly secure Jordan’s needs of basic commodities, ensure that there is sufficient stock of grain, and focus, in particular, on agriculture, and provide all necessary facilities for growing wheat, as Saudi Arabia and Egypt did to secure our needs of this vital commodity, he said.

In turn, the media spokesman for the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Supply, Yanal Al-Baramawy, confirmed the availability of sufficient and safe strategic stocks of wheat and barley, sufficient for local consumption for a period of 12 months each.

He said, in an exclusive statement via the Jordan News Agency (Petra), that the availability of this stock makes the Kingdom immune in the short term from being affected by Russia’s withdrawal from the grain agreement.

And he continued, if the crisis is prolonged, it will certainly have negative repercussions on global markets and grain supplies, especially wheat, which may lead to higher prices and affect importing countries.

Al-Baramawy explained that Jordan imports wheat and barley from different origins, and that the ministry has a plan to increase the Kingdom’s storage capacity of wheat and barley to about 2.5 million tons by the end of this year, by establishing more containers.

Al-Baramawy indicated that the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Supply is constantly offering tenders to purchase more quantities, to keep stocks at high levels, indicating that Jordan’s monthly consumption of wheat amounts to 90,000 tons.

What’s the cereal deal?
After the outbreak of the war, an agreement was reached between Ukraine and Russia by Turkey and the United Nations on a way to ensure the export of Ukrainian grain across the Black Sea, and the agreement provides for allowing the passage of foodstuffs and fertilizers through 3 Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea, which are Odessa, Chornomorsk and Pivdenny, where Ukrainian ships escort cargo ships in the Black Sea in order to avoid marine mines to reach international waters, and from there to Istanbul through a humanitarian corridor, and all these ships are subject to a joint inspection by a committee composed of Russian, Ukrainian, Turkish and international observers yen.

In parallel with this agreement, there was another agreement that provides for reducing sanctions on Russian agricultural materials and fertilizers. Both agreements are subject to review every two months, before Russia announces its withdrawal.

What is the significance of the grain agreement?
According to United Nations data, this agreement enabled the export of 33 million tons of Ukrainian wheat until this month, and according to the official British version, 61% of this amount went to middle- and low-income countries.

On the other hand, Russia says that the percentage of wheat that went to poor countries does not exceed 4%, and the rest goes to rich countries.

The United Nations World Food Program announced that it had bought 750,000 tons of Ukrainian wheat and delivered it to poor countries, such as Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan and Djibouti.

The United Nations says that this agreement contributed to reducing world grain prices by 20%, after they reached record levels immediately after the outbreak of the war.

What does Russia’s withdrawal from the agreement mean?
It means that the journey of ships loaded with grain will not be safe, and the level of its flow across the Black Sea will decline dramatically, and in the face of the decline in exports, Ukraine’s stock of grain will rise, which will push farmers to reduce the cultivation process for the next agricultural season, and this means a lower crop and higher prices.

On the Russian side, Russia and Belarus are among the largest exporters of fertilizers used in agriculture, as they both export 14% of the world’s total fertilizer needs, and Russia’s withdrawal from the agreement means the return of Western sanctions on Russian fertilizers, and this will lead to an increase in fertilizer prices or their scarcity in the market, which may affect the global production of foodstuffs.