Mathematical model predicts a cytokine storm in “Covid-19” infection
publish date 2022-03-07 10:43:33
Scientists from the University of Arizona and Harvard and the National Center for Biotechnology Information in the United States have developed a mathematical model that can predict the occurrence of a cytokine storm in people with “Covid-19”.
According to experts, this model mimics the functioning of the body’s immune system when faced with an infection. This model is a set of mathematical equations that describe the “relationship” between cells that regulate the activity of the immune system (cytokine) and that are directly involved in the immune response against infection. And when the immune response is normal, at a specific time, the amount of immune cells that directly confront the emerging coronavirus increases.
The cytokines act as a watchdog that calms down when they “feel” that there are enough immune cells. Because when the concentration of immune cells does not exceed the required level, the “storm” will not occur. In contrast, immune cells and cytokines turn into inducers. A large increase in immune cells is accompanied by a similar increase in cytokines. When this increase reaches a certain level, the “storm” begins.
There is a third option for the development of the situation. After the “confrontation” between the number of cytokines and immune cells, a new equilibrium occurs, although their number is greater than before the disease.
According to the researchers, the most important indicator that determines the modeling results is the strength of cytokine stimulation by immune cells. The larger it is, the faster the cytokine concentration reaches the maximum level necessary to suppress infection, and the ‘storm’ ends.
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