– Mounir Al Rabie, political analyst: Macron supported Riyadh’s conditions for opening up to Lebanon, and his position will shock the Iranians and “Hezbollah” as it fights its presidential battle (for the elections) in France and seeks to strengthen its presence in the Middle East

– Faisal Abdul Sater, political analyst: The problem of Saudi Arabia is not in Qardahi’s statements, but rather in “Hezbollah’s” weapon.

– Samir Skaf, Political activist: Macron’s role in Lebanon, regardless of his intention, leads to a flotation of the authority against which the people rose up and must be changed, as it is what led the country to the hell we are in

The Compass – Lebanon is still awaiting the results of the latest French intervention to address the crisis between Beirut and Riyadh, but experts have warned of counterproductive results that may plunge the country into new conflicts and keep it stuck in a cycle of political crises and economic collapse.

It is true that French President Emmanuel Macron succeeded on Saturday in “securing” contact between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati, but experts saw that behind this was “internal and external purposes” that Macron was seeking.

Mikati considered, in a statement, that the contact was an “important step” to revive relations with Riyadh, after their deterioration to an unprecedented level, following statements about the Yemen war made by George Qardahi before he assumed the media portfolio in Lebanon and then led him to resign on December 3. current.

In view of the joint French-Saudi statement, at the conclusion of Macron’s visit to Jeddah, an expert considered that the French president “sells illusions to the Lebanese,” in light of the difficulty of implementing what the statement included on the ground in Lebanon, which may open up The Lebanese have a new chapter of political confrontation.

** joint statement

The day after Qardahi’s resignation, and at the conclusion of Macron’s visit to the Saudi city of Jeddah on Saturday, a “joint statement” was issued between Riyadh and Paris that touched on the Lebanese issue, and included “the need to limit arms to state institutions,” and affirmation of international resolutions 1559, 1701 and 1680.

These resolutions issued by the UN Security Council date back to 2004 and 2006, and some of their contents constitute a contentious matter among the political forces in Lebanon, especially those that stipulate the disarmament of Lebanese groups.

Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran, possesses a large arsenal of weapons and missiles, and has fought over many years of confrontations against Israel, which withdrew in 2000 from most of the parts it occupied in southern Lebanon.

Usually, Lebanese political forces accuse Hezbollah of threatening the internal arena with this weapon, while the group says that it is dedicated exclusively to defending Lebanon in the face of Israel, which continues to occupy Lebanese lands.

Historically, warm relations prevailed between Riyadh and Beirut, but they became tense after 2016, when Saudi Arabia accused Hezbollah (an ally of Lebanese President Michel Aoun) of controlling the political and security decision in the country, as well as its intervention in the Yemen war with the support of groups working against Riyadh. .

Since 2015, Saudi Arabia has led a coalition that has been carrying out military operations in Yemen in support of the pro-government forces, in the face of the Iranian-backed Houthi group, which has controlled governorates including the capital, Sanaa (north) since 2014.

** Shock for Iran and “Hezbollah”

The writer and political analyst, Mounir Al-Rabie, told Anatolia, “The French position supported Riyadh’s conditions for Lebanon to return to its openness to it.”

He added: “The regional and international aspect cannot be neglected in the (French-Saudi) statement, when Macron emphasized that Saudi Arabia is a pivotal country and present in the regional equation, in light of the Vienna negotiations on Iran’s nuclear deal.”

Western and regional countries, led by Saudi Arabia, say that Iran has an expansionist agenda in the region and seeks to produce nuclear weapons, while Tehran says that it is committed to good neighborly relations and that its nuclear program is designed for peaceful purposes.

Al-Rabie suggested that “Macron’s position will reflect a shock on the Iranians and Hezbollah, while the French administration was recently in contact with Hezbollah and in full coordination with Tehran, the joint statement came to constitute a targeting of the party.”

He continued, “With this, Macron, based on Lebanon and its relationship with the Gulf and his enthusiasm for the signing of the nuclear agreement between the major powers and Iran, is fighting his presidential battle inside France and seeks to strengthen his presence in the Middle East.”

In April 2022, presidential elections will start, in which Macron seeks to win a second term.

** Big escalation

Al-Rabie considered that “if there is seriousness and a French-Saudi insistence on implementing the provisions of the joint statement, this will reflect a major escalation in Lebanon.”

He added, “The first to pay the price for this is Prime Minister Najib Mikati, in light of Hezbollah’s suspicion of these developments, which will lead to a new political crisis and additional division.”

He continued: “But if the French position is only verbal and formal to pass Macron’s visit to Saudi Arabia and the contact between Ibn Salman and Mikati, this will keep Lebanon on the same current path, that is, the continuation of the economic collapse.”

For two years, Lebanon has been experiencing the worst economic crisis in its history, with the collapse of the local currency, the lira, and the scarcity of medicines, fuel and other basic commodities, in addition to a sharp decline in purchasing power.

Experts say that the Saudi boycott of Lebanon has severe economic and financial repercussions, in light of the decline in Gulf investments in the country, and Riyadh’s decision to stop all imports from Lebanon.

** The previous initiative stumbled

This is not the first time that Macron has attempted to intervene through a so-called “initiative” to solve a Lebanese political crisis, as there was an attempt days after the explosion of the port of the capital, Beirut, on August 4, 2020.

At that time, Macron launched an “initiative” to solve the crisis in the country after the resignation of Hassan Diab’s government, against the backdrop of the huge explosion that killed 217 people and injured about 7,000 others, and in light of a severe economic crisis.

However, observers later considered that the “initiative” failed and the government vacuum continued for 13 months before the formation of the Mikati government, last September, and after about a month the diplomatic crisis with Saudi Arabia erupted.

On October 29, last, Riyadh withdrew its ambassador in Beirut and asked the Lebanese ambassador to leave, and this was done later by the Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and Yemen, in refusal to statements by Qardahi in which he considered that “the Houthis in Yemen are defending themselves against the attacks of Saudi Arabia and the UAE.”

** Winners and Losers

According to political analyst Faisal Abdel-Sater, what was called in the media a “French initiative to resolve the crisis between Saudi Arabia and Lebanon” was preceded by a condition, which is the resignation of Qardahi, and this is what actually happened, with the aim of opening the door to resolving the crisis through Macron.

However, Abdel Sater, who is close to Hezbollah, expressed his belief, in an interview with Anadolu Agency, that “Qardahi’s resignation may not be the beginning of resolving the crisis, as everyone knows that the problem is not with Qardahi’s statements, but rather beyond that.”

And he added, “Saudi Arabia knows that no one in Lebanon is able to achieve such big headlines that were mentioned in the (Saudi-French) joint statement, even if the French intervened for that.”

He continued, “The Americans and the whole world have previously intervened and issued Security Council resolutions regarding Hezbollah’s weapons through Resolutions 1559 and 1701, and they are still pending, especially regarding disarming the party or having arms in Lebanon confined to the hands of the army.”

He continued, “The summary of what happened is that President Macron is selling us illusions, and the space in which he is moving may restore his presence in the region, but without this having a positive impact on Lebanon.”

And he considered that “Riyadh achieved a moral victory with Macron’s visit and the resignation of Qardahi, as well as the signing of huge commercial contracts between the two countries. Thus, the winners from the visit are Macron and Ibn Salman, and the main losers are Lebanon and Yemen.”

Macron’s visit is the first by a Western leader to Saudi Arabia since the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, inside his country’s consulate in Istanbul, Turkey, in October 2018, which sparked global public opinion.

** power float

As for political activist Samir Skaf, he told Anadolu Agency that “Macron’s role in Lebanon, regardless of his intention, leads to the floating of the same authority against which the people rose up during the massive protests that erupted in late 2019 and lasted for several months.”

Skaf, a member of the “Union of Revolution Squares” group, added that “international support is required for Lebanon, but this support must be directly for the people, both economically and living conditions, in addition to helping to conduct and monitor fair elections.”

And he added: “We believe that this authority must be changed; Because it is what led Lebanon to the hell we are in.”

Anatolia