The ministerial meeting, the first of its kind in 10 years, between Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry and his Syrian counterpart, Faisal Miqdad, raised questions about the implications and repercussions of the sudden shift in Cairo’s position from implicit support to the Syrian regime to the declared one, in light of the region’s transformations and the intertwining of various international and regional powers in the tense file since 2011.

The meeting between Shukri and Miqdad came on the sidelines of the meetings of the United Nations General Assembly in New York – last Friday – during which they discussed ways to reach a solution to the Syrian crisis, without further details on its outcomes, knowing that Shukri is the fifth Arab minister to meet Miqdad in New York, after his counterparts from Mauritania Jordan, Oman and Iraq.

Egypt’s official position in support of the Syrian revolution and the severing of diplomatic relations with the Assad regime has changed since the summer of 2013. Earlier, Shoukry said that his country “is looking forward to the return of Syria to its Arab environment and the Arab League,” despite the Arab disagreement over lifting the freeze on Syria’s membership, according to This was stated recently by the Secretary-General of the Arab League, Ahmed Aboul Gheit.

first of its kind

On the outcomes of the meeting, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry contented itself with a brief statement in which it explained that the two sides discussed ways to end the Syrian crisis, while the Syrian regime news agency (SANA) stated that the meeting presented the developments of the crisis, the importance of concerted efforts to solve it, and respect for Syria’s sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity.

In statements he made the following day, Shukri explained that his meeting with Miqdad was “important after the lull in the military battles; To explore the steps that lead to preserving the capabilities of the Syrian people, getting out of the crisis, and restoring Syria as an active party in the Arab framework.”

wide transformations

Egyptian relations with the regime and the Syrian revolution have gone through several twists and turns in the past ten years. With the outbreak of the revolution, Cairo cut diplomatic relations with Damascus and supported the opposition revolutionary movement.

But since the summer of 2013, with the army’s intervention to remove the elected President Mohamed Morsi from power, the situation has changed radically towards the Syrian file. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who was defense minister before leading the intervention to remove the elected president, usually affirms his country’s support for the national armies.

The Egyptian deal with the Syrian file was not limited to tacit support for the Syrian regime, as it extended to holding security and intelligence meetings – according to previous statements by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and head of his intelligence office, Ali al-Mamlouk – referring to “coordination that has not stopped with Cairo politically and in the context of combating terrorism.”

The meeting between Shukri and Miqdad came in the midst of major regional transformations in the Arab region and the Middle East, in which Syria is one of the most important points of contact. On the one hand, the Syrian file is at the forefront of the Egyptian-Turkish talks to restore relations between the two countries, as Cairo had previously stipulated that Ankara leave Syria and Libya in order to normalize relations.

Estimates of former diplomats in Egypt also indicate the possibility of a breakthrough in the Arab position on Syria with progress in the Vienna negotiations for America’s return to the nuclear agreement with Iran and the gradual lifting of sanctions from it, and the possible developments of attempts at rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

On the other hand, Egypt has taken steps towards passing Egyptian gas to Lebanon through Syrian territory, amid assessments that Washington has no objection to that, in light of Caesar’s law that prevents dealing with or supporting the Syrian regime under any circumstances.

Exploration meeting

Regarding the implications and dimensions of the meeting between Shukri and Miqdad, the Egyptian academic and researcher in political science, Muhammad Al-Zawawi, believes that “it seems like an exploratory meeting from Cairo; To inquire about the latest developments in the situation in Syria, and the arrangements that are currently being prepared, led by Russia, in order to enter a transitional period.

In statements to Al-Jazeera Net, Al-Zawawi said that there is almost an Arab consensus to return Syria to the Arab League again, but Moscow remains aware of the arrangements currently being prepared for it.

According to the Egyptian academic, the Egyptian-Syrian rapprochement is normal within the Egyptian alliance system and the circles of Cairo’s foreign policy interest, while Syria’s importance to some other Arab countries may vary, given that it is no longer what it was before the revolution, so it needs help more than it is a state influential in strengthening regional alliances.

He added that the Syrian regime is a pragmatic, secular regime that bases its relationship with Iran on an interest-based relationship, and therefore its alliance with Tehran is not strategic, but its relationship with Moscow is more profound, and therefore the outcomes of the current Russian arrangements are what will determine the nature and scope of Syria’s return again. to the Arab League.

pressure sheet!

On the repercussions of the Egyptian-Syrian rapprochement on the Egyptian-Turkish talks, Al-Zawawi pointed out that Egypt had tried before to hold a rapprochement with the Syrian Kurds in order to pressure Turkey, and received envoys from them in Cairo, but it retracted this approach due to its unwillingness to engage in proxy wars with Turkey. Considering the weight of both countries at the regional level.

He added that waging proxy wars with Turkey is not safe for both sides, and exploiting pressure cards on Turkey in Syria could lead to Ankara taking the same step in Libya, which would harm the interests of the two countries, and thus the rapprochement in certain files and leaving the conflict in files Other seems to be the best solution for both Cairo and Ankara.

With regard to the nature of the Egyptian rapprochement with the Syrian regime and its dimensions on Cairo’s moves towards Jordan and Iraq, Al-Zawawi said that Egypt is trying to establish a new circle in the region after the collapse of the Arab circle, and the rapprochement with Iraq, Jordan and Syria would enhance Cairo’s economic standing and raise the level of cooperation From economic to political and strategic in the future.

He pointed out that Syria is an important element in that strategy, given the historical weight of Syria and its position in the Egyptian military strategy, as one of the most important elements of encircling Israel and preventing it from becoming one country without another in the region.