Unknown source rockets were fired from southern Lebanon, followed by Israeli air strikes, and then a missile response from Hezbollah. This is what the border between Lebanon and the Israeli occupation state witnessed during the past days and hours, in the most serious military escalation between the two sides for a long time.

The escalation, even if it is confined to open, unpopulated areas, experts believe that it may define new rules of engagement, while others see it as mutual regional messages on the impact of the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear file.

The military development began on Wednesday with the firing of 3 missiles from southern Lebanon towards one of the Israeli border settlements, without being claimed by any party. This was followed by Israeli artillery shelling in response to the bombing from Lebanon.

However, the most serious incident was that Israeli warplanes on Wednesday night bombarded areas in southern Lebanon, which was considered a violation of the “rules of engagement” in force since 2006.

On Thursday, the Lebanese army blamed Israel for the consequences of changing the “rules of engagement”, while President Michel Aoun condemned the “first of its kind” Israeli raids since 2006, indicating that they indicated escalating aggressive intentions.

On August 11, 2006, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 1701 calling for the cessation of all hostilities between Lebanon and Israel, against the backdrop of a 33-day war between Hezbollah fighters and the Israeli army.

Iran-backed Hezbollah has a large arsenal of weapons and missiles, and before the 2006 war, it had fought over many years of confrontations against Israel, which was occupying parts of southern Lebanon prior to its withdrawal from it in 2000.

As for the new mutual escalation that started on Wednesday, it was completed on Friday morning, with Hezbollah firing dozens of missiles towards Israel, according to what was announced in a statement, in which he indicated that it came in response to the recent Israeli air raids.

Although the military confrontation is limited in geographical scope, and did not result in casualties or clear material losses on both sides, it threatens to open the fires of a war front after years of inactivity.

However, the Lebanese military and strategic expert, retired Brigadier General Hisham Jaber, ruled out that developments on the borders would be a prelude to a comprehensive war, considering that what happened was a definition of the prevailing “rules of engagement” and nothing more.

Jaber told Anatolia, that what happened Friday was expected by Hezbollah, after Israel partially violated the “rules of engagement” through the aerial bombardment it carried out on the night of Wednesday – Thursday on southern Lebanon.

He pointed out that “Hezbollah” intended to launch rockets at open and uninhabited areas in Israel, with the aim of defining the rules of engagement with them.

In its statement, Hezbollah announced that it had bombed “open lands in the vicinity of the Israeli occupation sites,” in response to the Israeli air raids on “open lands” in southern Lebanon, in a clear reference to the “rules of engagement” and reciprocal response.

As for the rockets that were launched at Israel in the past few days and no one adopted them, Jaber pointed to the role of Palestinian factions in that, especially since they were primitive rockets.

Regarding the possibility of a war similar to the one that took place in 2006, Jaber ruled out this scenario, considering that the two sides cannot bear the consequences of the war, towards their internal society first, and the international community second.

“Excluding an all-out war” was also the opinion of writer and political analyst Mounir Rabie, who puts the military escalation in the context of the repercussions of complicating the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear file.

In his speech to Anatolia, Rabie said that in light of this scene, it is necessary to recall the “equation of unifying the fronts” against Israel, which Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah spoke about in his previous speeches more than once.

He believed that the missiles that were launched previously and were not adopted by anyone, were aimed at conveying a message to the Israelis and the Americans, that any strike against Iran would be on all fronts, and this is the logic of uniting the fronts.

On the other hand, the Israeli response by not targeting any Hezbollah site in the recent raids indicates that Israel does not want a greater military escalation, according to the spokesman.

Rabie believed that the US and Western conditions were not lenient with Iran regarding the negotiations, so the two sides resort to escalation to return to the negotiating table, and each side seeks to improve its conditions.

In addition to Israel’s attempt to change the rules of engagement, internal reasons may be behind the unprecedented Israeli response (air bombing), which is that the new Prime Minister, Naftali Bennett, wants to appear different from his predecessor, Benjamin Netanyahu.

Rabie expects such developments to continue in the next stage, but he rules out the occurrence of a comprehensive war or a large-scale clash, because the two sides do not want an actual escalation of the front.

Israel occupies part of the Lebanese territory, namely the Shebaa Farms and the Kafr Shuba hills, and a Security Council resolution was issued in 1978, stipulating its withdrawal, but it has not been implemented until today.

(Anatolia)