Paris is trying to avoid drowning in the quicksands of the coast, as the United States spent 20 years in Afghanistan
– Russia may fill the French vacuum in Mali, but it may meet the same fate as Barkhane, unless it resorted to the method of hybrid warfare through Wagner

With France’s decision to end the Barkhane military operation in the African Sahel region and lay the burden on a Western coalition led by the United States of America, the intensity of armed operations in the region is escalating similar to what is happening in Afghanistan.

Although the decision to end Operation Barkhane was taken at the end of 2020, after 8 years of fighting against al-Qaeda and “ISIS” terrorists, Paris took the second coup in Mali, which occurred on May 24, as a justification for its “vague” withdrawal from the region. the coast.

French President Emmanuel Macron warned the region’s leaders that he would “not stay on the side of a country where there is no longer a democratic legitimacy and no political transition.”

But Macron does not want to withdraw immediately from the coast, so as not to appear before his people as if he returned to dragging the tails of defeat from the coast, less than a year before the presidential elections, and he also does not want to drown in the quicksands of the region.

** European tacopa, would you be a substitute for Barkhane?

A difficult equation that Macron is trying to solve, especially after his “Republic on the Move” party suffered a severe defeat against the “Republican Party”, about 10 months before the presidential elections.

French public opinion does not understand the survival of its soldiers to be killed in the African Sahara in defense of “undemocratic” regimes, at a time when the peoples of the region view them as new colonialists and demand that they leave.

But Macron does not want to leave one of his country’s most important centers of influence in Africa for the Russians and the Chinese in particular, especially after he lost the Central African Republic, in which the Russian Wagner company became roaming after France ended the military operation “Sangaris” in 2016.

Therefore, the option before Paris, which it paved for months ago, is to internationalize the war on terrorism in the Sahel region, by implicating its European allies more in this conflict, and prompting the United States to bear a greater burden in the region, while keeping Paris military bases in each of Chad Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso.

France is mobilizing about 5,100 Barkhane forces in the region, while the United States is the second foreign force in the region with about 1,100 members, but its role is limited to training and providing logistical and intelligence support.

In July 2020, the French Ministry of Defense launched the military operation “Takuba”, which includes hundreds of special forces of several European countries in addition to the French army, which is expected to succeed Barkhane.

This means that France will remain present in the Sahel, but with the distribution of financial burdens and human losses on the rest of the European countries.

This decision mitigates local and international criticism of the violations and crimes committed by the French forces in the Sahel, most notably the killing of dozens of civilians in an air raid on a wedding in central Mali, according to a UN investigation. Paris refused to acknowledge its testimonies and evidence.

The United States does not seem very enthusiastic about leading a military operation in the Sahel, especially since its new strategy in combating terrorism seeks to reduce the size of its presence in hot spots and be satisfied with providing training and logistical support to local armies.

As for the European countries, their military intervention in the Sahel is still modest, especially since the region is poor in terms of resources, and it is classified within the areas of French influence, and these countries have no great interest in fighting instead of the parties directly involved in this conflict.

** Will Russia repeat France’s mistakes?

Russia represents one of the alternatives presented to the Sahel countries to fill the French vacuum, especially since many of the demonstrations that came out to denounce the French presence in Mali and Niger were calling for an alliance with Russia.

Russia, the heir to the Soviet Union, has in recent years made several breakthroughs in the areas of French influence, through the gateway to military cooperation and the supply of arms.

The Soviet Union had always stood by the peoples of the region in liberation from French colonialism, and supported them during the independence stage, before this influence receded from the end of the Cold War and the disintegration of the Soviet Union.

Russia seeks to exploit the French failure in the Sahel, as it did in the Central African Republic, but it may repeat the same French mistakes, leading to its own exhaustion.

The sands of the coast swallowed the Russians as they swallowed the French, and Moscow had a bad experience in Afghanistan when it occupied it between 1979 and 1989.

The Americans worked to exhaust the Soviets in Afghanistan for 10 years, until they were exhausted economically, humanly, and militarily, and were forced to withdraw. After that, in less than 3 years, the Soviet Union collapsed and disintegrated.

After another decade, the Americans made the same mistake that brought down the Soviet Union and before them the British and Indians. They occupied Afghanistan, and entered into a war of attrition for 21 years, during which they lost between 800 billion and 3 trillion dollars, according to various sources, to finally decide to withdraw from it without being able to Eliminate their little enemy (the Taliban).

In the Sahel, France could not hold out more than 8 years, given its limited economic and military capabilities compared to the United States.

After Paris launched Operation Serval in 2013 to stop the advance of Tuareg rebels and extremist groups close to al-Qaeda in northern Mali, Operation Barkhane was formed to extend to the entire five Sahel countries (Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Chad and Mauritania).

Although Barkhane and the forces of the five Sahel countries dealt strong blows to the armed organizations in the region, violence erupted on a large scale and spread from northern Mali to most of the Sahel countries, and even as far as tropical West Africa, and in a third stage it reached the heart of Equatorial Africa to its southeast.

This wide expansion of terrorist groups in African geography is one of the most prominent manifestations of the “strategic failure” of the French army and its plans.

In order to avoid the scenario of attrition, in which Washington fell in Afghanistan and Paris in the Sahel, Moscow adopts the method of hybrid warfare, through the use of the Wagner Company, which employs a few thousand mercenaries, in its various wars.

So that any defeat for Wagner does not necessarily mean a defeat for Russia, which does not officially adopt this company. Rather, its laws do not allow the establishment of security companies, which leaves it even limited room for maneuver.

Wagner suffered several blows and defeats in eastern Syria, western Libya and northern Mozambique, without embarrassing Moscow.

** escalation of violence

Since the French President announced, on June 10, that Barkhane was replaced by a broader international coalition, the Sahel countries have witnessed a sharp rise in violence, most of which are attributed to terrorist groups affiliated with Al-Qaeda or ISIS.

This situation is similar to what is happening in Afghanistan since Washington’s decision to withdraw from it, which led to the escalation of Taliban attacks on the outskirts of the main cities.

On June 25, 15 German soldiers from the UN forces in Mali were wounded in a car bomb attack, and 19 civilians were killed before that in western Niger near the border with Mali.

On June 21, 3 French soldiers were wounded from Operation Barkhane in Mali, and about a week before that, a Nigerian soldier was killed and 3 soldiers were wounded, including two French.

However, the largest death toll in June occurred in northern Burkina Faso, near the borders with Mali and Niger, in which about 100 civilians were killed by terrorists.

This deteriorating security situation in the three-border area of ​​the coast confirms that the end of Operation Barkhane was inevitable after its failure for 8 years to achieve a minimum level of security and stability in the region.